Reflexive logoreflexive

Every launch is a market.

Launch a token on a bonding curve. Everyone else bets YES or NO on whether it graduates.

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Volume
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Launch
How it works

Pump.fun meets Polymarket.

01

Launch

Create an SPL token with a name, ticker, logo and socials. It starts trading instantly on a bonding curve.

02

Market opens

Every token automatically gets its own YES/NO market: will it graduate before the deadline?

03

Trade & predict

Buy the token itself, or buy YES or NO shares. Odds move with real demand, priced by an LMSR market maker.

04

Settle & claim

When the curve hits 85 SOL, YES wins. If the deadline passes first, NO wins. Winning shares pay 1 SOL each.

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market lets you trade on the outcome of a future event. Each share pays out 1 SOL if its outcome happens, and nothing if it doesn't. So the price of a share is the crowd's estimate of the probability.

Here the event is always the same: will this token graduate before its deadline? Rules are fixed at launch and resolved only from curve data, so nobody can change the outcome.

Every trading fee is split between the creator, the protocol and a reserve. As YES odds rise, the creator's share grows from 10% to 30%. Belief feeds rewards, and rewards feed belief. That is the reflexive loop.

Example
$CAT launches with a $10,000 market cap.
"Will $CAT graduate before the deadline?"
65% YES35% NO
Buy YES at 0.65
10 SOL ≈ 15.4 shares. If $CAT graduates you get 15.4 SOL (+54%).
Buy NO at 0.35
10 SOL ≈ 28.6 shares. If it doesn't graduate you get 28.6 SOL (+186%).

You can sell shares any time before settlement as the odds move.

Live markets

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